Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x064fa7951eef1af3f0b211fdfa8f5e9f921bb3d15bee7c17d101e07fee23d4ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 58c | 428.48$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 34c | 294.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 66c | 224.89$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 66c | 184.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 25c | 162$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 140.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 127.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 112.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 68c | 111.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 105.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 35c | 101.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 99.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 95.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 73c | 94.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 92.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 38c | 82.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 57c | 73.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 64.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 58.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 49c | 50.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 50.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 50.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…125ebacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…cf15backed No | 43c | 43.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 41.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 38.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 38.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 39c | 29.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 28.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 28.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 53c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 76c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…680abacked Yes | 70c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.