Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0670389f8c80212557e869c42fff705860ce0b2862641e97770f4a69014cb504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 17c | 1,524$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.37 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,335$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.83 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 593.34$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.23 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a94…0f59backed Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 45c | 297.77$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 65c | 294.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Under | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 31c | 240$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 78c | 182.44$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 52c | 168.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…bbccbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Under | 67c | 119.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 48c | 119.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 69c | 117$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 34c | 113.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e2…7b4ebacked Over | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 31c | 102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 32c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Under | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Under | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Under | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.