Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06948ac64c9e63a0c8ec3ca78bbe4140b3641fa7c9aca34be637c196b25bb375
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51af…8720backed Yes | 8c | 2,772$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…62c9backed Yes | 14c | 2,489$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…7730backed Yes | 9c | 1,624$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…992abacked Yes | 14c | 948.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 9c | 945.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 3c | 784.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 26cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 12c | 394.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7d…3f24backed Yes | 14c | 304.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes | 15c | 208.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 14c | 203.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a7…ce6abacked Yes | 11c | 129.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 14c | 88.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…f113backed Yes | 14c | 87.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 15c | 83.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-04-10?No won
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.