Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-04-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1902c3bb6dd29aa5e0286499d2fd62070ac94d8512f870348642332f2f0c37f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 10,460$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.1 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 8c | 6,866$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.28 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 5c | 6,674$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.09 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 2c | 3,986$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Yes | 8c | 2,716$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.24 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 8c | 2,715$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.19 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 8c | 2,715$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.19 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 8c | 2,661$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 8c | 2,661$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 8c | 2,661$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,661$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Yes | 8c | 2,661$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Yes | 8c | 2,097$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Yes | 8c | 1,707$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 8c | 1,594$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,474$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 7c | 1,360$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 1,302$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 8c | 1,181$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 8c | 1,127$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,026$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…31a0backed Yes | 7c | 999.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 8c | 973.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 7c | 948.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…992abacked Yes | 8c | 885.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 3c | 633.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…c26abacked Yes | 8c | 590.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 8c | 563.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Yes | 8c | 538.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…99b6backed Yes | 8c | 531.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes | 8c | 330.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 8c | 327.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 286$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Yes | 8c | 276.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 9c | 222.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 7c | 220.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 9c | 210.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…bab3backed Yes | 7c | 208.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 8c | 194.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…a9fbbacked Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Yes | 8c | 170.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 8c | 160.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 8c | 150.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 149.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…2e2bbacked Yes | 8c | 131.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-04-10?this page
- Will Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.