South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06b19456df828f45aa4a62655f353f11a7a17ea618703ed415905da056499975
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 40c | 499.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed No | 40c | 458.48$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Yes | 60c | 246.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 60c | 241.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 40c | 210.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 60c | 137.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…ed50backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +147.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 60c | 116.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 20c | 109.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 69c | 101.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 60c | 84.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 40c | 62.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 61c | 51.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…8991backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 60c | 49.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…3733backed Yes | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.