South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57e28465cd127761bc70bb4946ab7dc0c46e56b2c3147442173e9bbd8acce25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 4,804$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 26c | 4,698$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.45 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 4,085$3,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.21 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 77c | 2,061$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.46 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Over | 20c | 1,860$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.27 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 32c | 1,599$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.03 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 36c | 1,252$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.64 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 65c | 1,210$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.82 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…994dbacked Over | 22c | 797.27$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 716.83$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.54 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 614.9$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 57c | 515.26$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.56 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 53c | 463.08$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 74c | 368.83$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 58c | 347.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 335.48$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.79 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 59c | 326$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 78c | 310.31$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 63c | 285.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 65c | 252.74$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 17c | 232.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f5…6210backed Over | 10c | 227$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Over | 31c | 206.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Under | 69c | 205.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 28c | 204.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Over | 26c | 190.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 62c | 168.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…b10fbacked Under | 70c | 166.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 153.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 80c | 132.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 32c | 119.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 38c | 89.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 37c | 86.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 31c | 62.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 26c | 60.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 57.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 37c | 53.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Over | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 37c | 49.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…7843backed Under | 77c | 45.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 64c | 43.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Over | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 31c | 38.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 33c | 38.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…6516backed Under | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 35c | 31.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Over | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 78c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51ab…93c6backed Under | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.