South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5594c01297669ce3fc3030c06cb7a59ffad5b02108d9780d178832b0d81b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 10c | 2,889$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 14c | 1,205$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 1,008$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 19c | 526.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 12c | 428.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 9c | 300.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 27c | 274$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 18c | 265.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 229.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 20c | 143.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Under | 10c | 99.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 86.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d17…0d91backed Under | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 0.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.