MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06b852d6eeb00d0a45a309343fc3efdf58e6c2a1400fee2096aac2f1b00f2b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 2,625$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 2,050$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 947.84$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 211.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 142.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 112$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 98.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 61.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 59.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 29.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…fd93backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.