MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1cc19e3a6bf0b1f94ed85b05cfd78bb137143e9ee084e8a85d295d1756aed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 2,031$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 851.94$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.78 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…b2ddbacked Boston Red Sox | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 444.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 423.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 423.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 421.68$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 345.04$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 237.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 231.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 211.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 211.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 175.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 151.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 143.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 137$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 120.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 114.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…05d8backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 73.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 55.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 53.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 46.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 43.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 36.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.