MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03bf0a0286cb692c55df2ab174000d607340df4234700ee4ccb0da759129903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 9,596$5,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,004.29 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 7,207$3,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,860.01 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 6,949$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.15 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 3,124$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.28 | 1,878 | 52.1%978 W · 900 L | +52.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 2,350$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.86 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 1,672$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.05 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 1,396$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.06 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 41c | 778.88$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.65 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 68c | 754.9$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.83 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Over | 59c | 549.15$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 45c | 510.1$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 56c | 468$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 753 | 50.6%381 W · 372 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 45c | 466.42$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.02 | 1,150 | 31.7%365 W · 785 L | -95.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 49c | 385.56$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 302 | 51%154 W · 148 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 41c | 376.7$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 332 | 56.3%187 W · 145 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 41c | 341$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 41c | 301.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 46c | 298.83$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 50c | 296.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 290.03$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 41c | 248$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.22 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 48c | 245.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 221.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 4,201 | 50.2%2,109 W · 2,092 L | +94.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 74c | 207.85$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.24 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 187.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 41c | 174.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 42c | 157.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 52c | 147.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 143.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 41c | 133.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 59c | 130.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 129.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 104.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 771 | 58.1%448 W · 323 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 41c | 102.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 53c | 95.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 77c | 93.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 55c | 93.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…b2ddbacked Under | 31c | 91.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 41c | 89.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 57c | 88.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 387 | 41.6%161 W · 226 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…b4f5backed Over | 16c | 77.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 41c | 62.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 42c | 59.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 56.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 280 | 46.4%130 W · 150 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Over | 43c | 42.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 45c | 40.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 53c | 35.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 459 | 58.4%268 W · 191 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 32.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 57c | 31.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 41c | 30.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Under | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -8.7wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 56c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 28.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 6,132 | 55.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L | +346.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Over | 41c | 26.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 56c | 22.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf03…9538backed Over | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Under | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 49c | 21.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…a84abacked Under | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.