NFL · resolved market
Will there be a missed extra point attempt in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d753dca06824f4af826e23f85f6fed1484d504ce301045fa26434c63e4f922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 80c | 1,760$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,106$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 78c | 1,000$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 20c | 857.71$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…af86backed Yes | 27c | 252.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 22c | 219.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 121.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf52…b9bfbacked Yes | 22c | 114.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 78c | 108.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…9938backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…c74dbacked No | 77c | 94.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…da14backed No | 76c | 80.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…d87fbacked No | 76c | 77.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a missed extra point attempt in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Harrison Butker make 2 or more field goals in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will Jake Elliot make 2 or more field goals in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will there be 4 or more field goals made in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will there be a doink in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.