TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Jake Elliot make 2 or more field goals in Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,745 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb928…5fd7backed Over50c410$205 inWon+$205366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Under50c320.79$160 inLost-$160.378234.1%28 W · 54 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Under50c200$100 inLost-$10010143.6%44 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Under47c171.31$81 inLost-$80.524047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc1a…b35cbacked Over53c142.96$76 inWon+$67.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…12d1backed Under51c135.73$69 inLost-$69.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb1…cf90backed Under49c122.74$60 inLost-$60.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…d87fbacked Over52c118.96$62 inWon+$56.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Under48c101.92$49 inLost-$48.9214926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Under48c100.05$48 inLost-$48.0226830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Under52c100$52 inLost-$5215332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Over50c100$50 inWon+$5028433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8c…9f0fbacked Under50c90$45 inLost-$45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3bf…1dd6backed Over50c90$45 inWon+$452100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf373…f3cebacked Over50c87$44 inWon+$43.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53c…14aabacked Under50c72$36 inLost-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d46…bb70backed Under50c59$30 inLost-$29.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd16…7467backed Over50c54$27 inWon+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8079…effabacked Over52c44.23$23 inWon+$21.231225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5497…05e3backed Over50c40$20 inWon+$204100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f2b…6b8fbacked Over52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Over60c30$18 inWon+$127939.2%31 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Under40c30$12 inLost-$1217648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Over49c25.73$13 inWon+$13.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2558…9acebacked Over51c23.53$12 inWon+$11.534957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4a…23d0backed Over50c21$11 inWon+$10.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.