TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
largadosypeladosof largadosypelados, UNO MILLE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6320…7819backed UNO MILLE68c15,536$10,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,526.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed largadosypelados36c14,934$5,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,619.6828960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked largadosypelados14c9,657$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,300.3213343.6%58 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7140…8398backed UNO MILLE72c6,593$4,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,721250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4933…46adbacked UNO MILLE78c6,257$4,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,884.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed largadosypelados29c6,201$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,397.9865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d9…19b5backed UNO MILLE64c4,708$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ea…a086backed UNO MILLE71c4,690$3,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…4b63backed largadosypelados29c4,333$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,061.5311947.9%57 W · 62 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed largadosypelados28c3,882$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.092,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x021e…f194backed UNO MILLE56c3,484$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed largadosypelados25c3,113$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.492,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e84…3faebacked UNO MILLE64c2,659$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed largadosypelados31c2,278$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.9538312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed UNO MILLE61c2,195$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.3215641%64 W · 92 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6e…4268backed UNO MILLE74c2,178$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f6…b0f2backed UNO MILLE64c1,939$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.431435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf37…a969backed largadosypelados35c1,601$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+119.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6409…a21ebacked UNO MILLE63c1,598$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed largadosypelados43c1,555$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.1821744.7%97 W · 120 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed UNO MILLE1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15620%0 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked UNO MILLE1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157920.3%16 W · 63 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed UNO MILLE1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151080.9%1 W · 107 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked UNO MILLE1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked largadosypelados39c1,489$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.167,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0e…021ebacked largadosypelados19c1,481$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.622231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xde1d…dfaabacked UNO MILLE75c1,463$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.567459.5%44 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed largadosypelados25c1,432$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0741546.7%7 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+64.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed largadosypelados36c1,432$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.7664058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed largadosypelados41c1,376$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.292,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed largadosypelados28c1,297$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.933146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed largadosypelados24c1,223$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.0591743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…26edbacked UNO MILLE51c1,201$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed largadosypelados23c1,133$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.1852750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…ea7cbacked UNO MILLE61c1,123$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed largadosypelados31c1,123$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.8620554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked largadosypelados27c1,115$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.73,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x567e…f84dbacked UNO MILLE54c1,104$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed largadosypelados25c1,028$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.2683543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked UNO MILLE1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83d…4c0fbacked UNO MILLE75c935$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed largadosypelados22c900$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.45,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked largadosypelados29c881$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.533,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked largadosypelados42c837.45$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.314057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed largadosypelados14c825.58$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.142427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed largadosypelados13c780.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.4132138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked largadosypelados40c725.8$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.8222542.7%96 W · 129 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed largadosypelados23c682.84$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.6428052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9861…b2c7backed UNO MILLE60c679.82$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked largadosypelados22c673.73$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.4266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf49a…f530backed UNO MILLE71c658$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed largadosypelados26c653.55$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.845,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed largadosypelados40c650$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39013738.7%53 W · 84 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed largadosypelados24c630.83$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.4332544.3%144 W · 181 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656b…682cbacked UNO MILLE66c602.68$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked largadosypelados44c574.86$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7733459%197 W · 137 L+24.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed largadosypelados24c530.1$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.144244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed largadosypelados32c506.94$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.8864046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed largadosypelados11c500$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44618432.6%60 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed largadosypelados11c500$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.51,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked largadosypelados11c500$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4463622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed UNO MILLE40c472.54$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked largadosypelados48c455.46$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.8427549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed largadosypelados26c448.21$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6214443.1%62 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed UNO MILLE80c443.5$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.535861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked largadosypelados20c438.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.869020%18 W · 72 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked largadosypelados24c432.5$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.054,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked largadosypelados49c423.11$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.775,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked largadosypelados39c407.79$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.791764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed largadosypelados64c400.03$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.031,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1b…f0f9backed largadosypelados24c397.83$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.351747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+89.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd816…a60ebacked largadosypelados41c358.03$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.032548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed largadosypelados17c335$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.026225.8%16 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed largadosypelados36c321.46$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.14,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed largadosypelados22c318.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7248635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed largadosypelados13c315.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.52540%10 W · 15 L+7.9wins+0.32per pick8cpaid+215.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed UNO MILLE48c299.98$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9924942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed largadosypelados29c295$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4535848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed largadosypelados25c290$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6912948.1%62 W · 67 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed38…a7aabacked largadosypelados48c270.48$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae0d…a507backed largadosypelados50c256$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1282352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed UNO MILLE5c250$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5522324.7%55 W · 168 L-21.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed largadosypelados50c246.21$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0139946.4%185 W · 214 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed largadosypelados28c226.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6113324.8%33 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked largadosypelados48c217.37$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.381,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x822b…61fdbacked UNO MILLE42c215.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.173046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed largadosypelados49c211.56$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.32,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed UNO MILLE42c201$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.812,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f6…55aabacked largadosypelados16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked UNO MILLE48c199.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1122954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed largadosypelados38c193.68$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0835148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae5…a298backed UNO MILLE64c186.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked largadosypelados31c186$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2736334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed UNO MILLE65c181.08$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.645465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14fa…5258backed UNO MILLE40c178.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.713724.3%9 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc004…a2aabacked UNO MILLE79c178.48$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed largadosypelados29c173.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.159343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…f6b7backed UNO MILLE44c173$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.931172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a6b…66b6backed largadosypelados22c172$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.734450%22 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed largadosypelados25c165.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.384,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.