Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07152f259ea8b372a05ca0e5a452dac7b9902ba505a798251f37122ff69410dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 467.45$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 57c | 394.91$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 235.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 225.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 6c | 221.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 219.94$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 25c | 188.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 152.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 7c | 150.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 134.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 9c | 133.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 131.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 128.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 42c | 118.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 72.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 64.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 54c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 45c | 63.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 57.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 52.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 47.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 49c | 43.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 37.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 34.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 34.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 31.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 62c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63d…8ee8backed No | 57c | 29.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 73c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 27.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 25.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 23.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 76c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.