Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f21e12bfc5627c0f5476b6f10df2c56d3bd8fb208ca6b15c4ae89157be12c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,602$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 1,461$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 700$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 56c | 663.53$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.12 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 62c | 608.91$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.89 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 73c | 480.13$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.37 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 32c | 414.35$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 56c | 395.48$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.69 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 338.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 64c | 250.23$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 243.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 243.06$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 243.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 61c | 180.63$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 49c | 177.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 167.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 41c | 159.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 42c | 153.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 126.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 107.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 35c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 100.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 96.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 86.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 63c | 79.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 35c | 78.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 76.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 71.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 71.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 29c | 65.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 56c | 60.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 54.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 63c | 51.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24af…27d4backed No | 57c | 47.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 49c | 47.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 42.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 40.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c03…9ef9backed Yes | 36c | 40.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…50f8backed No | 64c | 40.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 36c | 40.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…ee88backed No | 57c | 39.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…3537backed No | 58c | 39.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…9d83backed No | 56c | 38.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…c7fabacked Yes | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 36.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 61c | 35.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 37c | 34.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 76c | 34.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 34c | 33.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…2583backed Yes | 44c | 33.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…b341backed No | 63c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…17e4backed Yes | 44c | 31.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…8119backed Yes | 36c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…5a48backed Yes | 37c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 28.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd6…7453backed Yes | 44c | 28.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…f336backed No | 64c | 28.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 26.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 26.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 25.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 42c | 25.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…c211backed No | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 69c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0737…e320backed Yes | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…0539backed No | 58c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.