Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x071896e6d42978a54a92c52ee62f69d36d76dd3d7d90097366263058d53f981c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Runa Team, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 2,499$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.63 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Runa Team | 14c | 2,131$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.06 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Runa Team | 24c | 2,035$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.32 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 1,837$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.85 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Runa Team | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Runa Team | 12c | 1,586$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.1 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Runa Team | 12c | 1,372$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.55 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Runa Team | 21c | 1,361$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.81 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Runa Team | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Runa Team | 19c | 758.41$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 422.11$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Runa Team | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Runa Team | 26c | 384.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Runa Team | 24c | 355.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 281.01$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 145.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tundra Esports | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Runa Team | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Runa Team | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Runa Team | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Runa Team | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 51.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…8aa8backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 39.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8459backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.