Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a26841d670c506411360d84ae644cfb57e83910aed036479951232ad9ea1ace

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tundra Esportsof Runa Team, Tundra Esports
Resolved: Dec 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,929 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfd96…e623backed Runa Team	18c	4,825$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.99	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Runa Team	19c	4,206$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.74	301	38.9%117 W · 184 L	-20.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Runa Team	18c	3,789$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.7	145	38.6%56 W · 89 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Runa Team	19c	3,500$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.74	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Runa Team	15c	2,557$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.89	569	55.5%316 W · 253 L	+22.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked Runa Team	2c	2,228$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.83	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Runa Team	14c	2,227$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.91	91	45.1%41 W · 50 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Runa Team	18c	2,039$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.01	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Runa Team	18c	1,937$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.44	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Runa Team	15c	1,844$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.02	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Runa Team	14c	1,679$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.6	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Runa Team	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	399	36.8%147 W · 252 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed Tundra Esports	80c	1,500$1,195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Runa Team	15c	1,300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.99	184	52.2%96 W · 88 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Runa Team	1c	1,249$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	76	30.3%23 W · 53 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Runa Team	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	206	42.2%87 W · 119 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5571…4015backed Runa Team	10c	999.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+50%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed Runa Team	16c	883.93$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Runa Team	18c	870.77$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.06	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Runa Team	18c	784.64$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.24	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Runa Team	14c	762.5$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.5	465	35.1%163 W · 302 L	+22.9wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x461e…f3e3backed Runa Team	17c	660$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6f…b384backed Runa Team	17c	657$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a4…2a56backed Runa Team	17c	656$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Tundra Esports	79c	638.36$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.16	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team	16c	600$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	491	33.6%165 W · 326 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc86…f1a6backed Runa Team	17c	593$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.81	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Runa Team	17c	574.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e2…d8b8backed Runa Team	17c	560$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb10…8062backed Runa Team	7c	387.15$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Runa Team	16c	324.96$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	82	23.2%19 W · 63 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Tundra Esports	80c	316.51$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.3	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Runa Team	18c	310$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Runa Team	17c	299.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Runa Team	14c	299.98$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Runa Team	14c	284.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	168	35.7%60 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Runa Team	8c	263.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70d7…2511backed Runa Team	12c	260.72$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-25%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Runa Team	20c	250.87$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb079…a1ccbacked Runa Team	18c	227.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Runa Team	11c	222.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	142	44.4%63 W · 79 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Runa Team	5c	218.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	328	6.4%21 W · 307 L	-102.4wins	-0.31per pick	38cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	18-0.29 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Runa Team	19c	208.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.53	282	44%124 W · 158 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4169…5d25backed Runa Team	9c	199.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Runa Team	8c	179.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed Runa Team	9c	178.53$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc689…9279backed Runa Team	14c	170$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Runa Team	9c	157.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	793	43.6%346 W · 447 L	+38.4wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Runa Team	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Runa Team	18c	128.88$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x728a…df69backed Runa Team	18c	127.78$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Runa Team	18c	111.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Runa Team	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	135	57.8%78 W · 57 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Runa Team	17c	105$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Runa Team	19c	103.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Runa Team	19c	100.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Runa Team	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Runa Team	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Runa Team	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,797	55.8%1,003 W · 794 L	+37.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed Tundra Esports	79c	55$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Tundra Esports	79c	44.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…701fbacked Tundra Esports	80c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c1…f0d2backed Tundra Esports	80c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3)this page
Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event