Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7d8e5aa7545b93f7df2c8fbac444531d3a406949952d29907728654c2382def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Runa Team, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Runa Team | 18c | 8,001$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.52 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Runa Team | 32c | 3,797$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.21 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 2,913$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.04 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 2,000$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.75 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 1,730$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.35 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Runa Team | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Runa Team | 14c | 1,499$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team | 22c | 1,096$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 666$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…1732backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 597.26$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Runa Team | 23c | 499.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…5d25backed Runa Team | 12c | 380$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 371.19$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…12d2backed Runa Team | 28c | 281.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Runa Team | 23c | 260.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Runa Team | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Runa Team | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 197.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 192.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f0…7d99backed Runa Team | 16c | 162.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Runa Team | 9c | 149.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Tundra Esports | 76c | 132.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Tundra Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 101.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Runa Team | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Runa Team | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Runa Team | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Runa Team | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Runa Team vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.