Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0719ff423681c9c1bb1afdc0dc408701f3dcd84cced5b2e053afd5ae646b4877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 40c | 257.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.06 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 255.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 244.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 180.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 149.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 146.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 56c | 130.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 48c | 121.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 111.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 107.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 50c | 105.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 86.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 82.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 62c | 81.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 17c | 78.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 64.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 55.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 43c | 52.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 43c | 52.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 38.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 33.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 30.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 28.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 74c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 60c | 25.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.