MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x073a434b849d971c2f007483554ea2c70f13c8578be1a766d3aa800c99fc6517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof New York Mets, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 64c | 6,559$4,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,183.95 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 45c | 6,186$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.42 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…db58backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 5,600$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 3,200$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.15 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 2,729$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.64 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 983.6$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.6 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 39c | 810.82$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.43 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 505.13$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 167.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed New York Mets | 46c | 135.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 134.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 127.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked New York Mets | 48c | 126.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 121.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 55.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 49.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 39c | 48.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 43.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 41.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked New York Mets | 49c | 31.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.