MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03e222499a4630f66e7e2390b854b2b48dac753e9cb50d9579aef0e880e2794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 45,491$25,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,472.61 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 15,482$7,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,274.37 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 7,753$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.71 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 6,049$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.3 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 3,756$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.91 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 3,222$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.49 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 2,048$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.84 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,039$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.61 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 1,642$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.75 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 1,459$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.49 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.1 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 585$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.25 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 45c | 464.44$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 443.43$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 53c | 317.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 313$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 45c | 299.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 295.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.39 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 42c | 291.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 284.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 277$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 216.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…bed6backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 55c | 176.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 176$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 45c | 162$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 45c | 146.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 55c | 136.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 118.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 118$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 34c | 114.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 100.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 50c | 89.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 71.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 45c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 45c | 56.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 53.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 51.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 47.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 25c | 46.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 55c | 42.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 35.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…59f1backed Over | 42c | 35.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 47c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…4e60backed Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Under | 51c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4675…b0d5backed Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 45c | 25.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Over | 43c | 24.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 52c | 23.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 46c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 52c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 52c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 46c | 21.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 67c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York MetsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.