Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x073cab1265753995c0a699a8a195937bed52d68aacf92ed3782ce5e54b2b9d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,008$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 6c | 844.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 15c | 329.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1d0cbacked Yes | 17c | 227.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 20c | 202.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 20c | 173.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 173.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 19c | 169.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 16c | 137.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 134.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 17c | 126.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 21c | 121.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 111.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 18c | 111.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 104.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 96.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 12c | 96.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 93.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 19c | 70.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 20c | 67.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 21c | 57.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 22c | 56.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 20c | 56.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed No | 79c | 55.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 21c | 54.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…634dbacked Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 45.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 30.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…bff1backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.