TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf00…353fbacked No14c997.76$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5259121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes49c508.04$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.3536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No19c484.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.814,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes76c466.45$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9424466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No6c417$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.024,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes26c380.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.822733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No53c348.24$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.92,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.782,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No36c315.57$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No69c297.13$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9312329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No29c295$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.964,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb541…169dbacked No49c265.08$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.994365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes63c248.09$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.413240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes54c247.17$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.085,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c217.3$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.683,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No67c205.62$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3134624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No26c202.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.88955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes68c197.2$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7125742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No47c193.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes79c192.64$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1934748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c181.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.731,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b3…7d44backed No8c171.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9618449.5%91 W · 93 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No7c170.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.172,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes30c169.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes39c167.02$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No22c163.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1231219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c162.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.487,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9933…db7dbacked Yes31c159.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.182317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No29c156.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.522,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d97…05c3backed Yes72c137.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.081776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No74c135.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.975068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes65c132.49$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.411,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No40c125.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.324736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c113$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.555,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes48c109.23$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No10c107.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8311038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.827237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c99.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes34c99.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.162030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes30c98.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6611546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes74c97.21$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2114645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No71c92.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.541,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes35c91.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0837835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No75c88.18$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c86.77$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.769,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes34c84.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6711438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes23c82.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6214040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes31c79.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes27c77.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.117831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes34c76.8$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.462934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No66c75.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6386173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes42c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc86b…1d8ebacked No36c75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.251723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb563…26bfbacked Yes69c72.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes57c71.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.371,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes56c70.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes35c70.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.26431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes33c68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes28c62.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2715923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c62.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.948,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ec…d09cbacked No70c62.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.761560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed No65c61.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes33c60.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.527524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes30c59.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes22c59.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.736439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes34c58.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.012138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes34c56.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69cd…0c69backed Yes23c56.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes33c55.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.143050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f30…1f71backed Yes69c53.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.461866.7%12 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes23c53.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.264,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4281…634dbacked Yes28c52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.341145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c51.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.964,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No37c50.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.621,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1036…0244backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.864460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No70c49.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No71c47.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No38c47.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No36c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc056…8f0cbacked Yes33c45.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9e…9466backed Yes25c43.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.95540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+108%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…1640backed Yes68c43.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.812982.8%24 W · 5 L+7.3wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+48.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes29c40.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No27c38.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4341258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c37.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes40c35.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3152533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed Yes67c35.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.654330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c34.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No72c33.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.464,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2304…989dbacked No37c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No34c30.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.438258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.650373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.