Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e7c95d907aceacc243b92771a2c382c9350f509da8e8fb1c674181b2d6603b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 1c | 1,035$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 14c | 631.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 26c | 283.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 237.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 69c | 190.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 28c | 169.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 166.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1d0cbacked Yes | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 47c | 128.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 27c | 113.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 111.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 66c | 107.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 75c | 106.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 65c | 105.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 29c | 103.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 99.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 98.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 32c | 98.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 69c | 96.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 32c | 95.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 30c | 81.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 80.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 29c | 79.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 72.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 68.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…1b0abacked Yes | 32c | 62.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 29c | 62.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…634dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 59.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 32c | 56.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 56.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 56.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 45c | 56.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…6887backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 53.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 55c | 51.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…16dfbacked No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 48.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 25c | 41.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…5911backed Yes | 31c | 41.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…644dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 38.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 38.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…c680backed No | 72c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 57c | 34.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 33.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…53b3backed Yes | 32c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…13b5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 30.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 29.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 68c | 26.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 59c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.