Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb60da43b025731841c19112d9511afc9566ce3a8fa9c796d88b796dca69fd2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 11c | 1,661$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.38 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 5c | 499.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…6887backed Yes | 15c | 328.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…7f60backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 285.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 262.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 247.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 15c | 219.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 10c | 207.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 9c | 185.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 175.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 140.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 136.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 114.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 109.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 19c | 104.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…67e5backed Yes | 22c | 91.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 84.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…634dbacked Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 25c | 80.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…5911backed Yes | 14c | 76.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 76.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 19c | 73.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 24c | 61.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 17c | 60.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 78c | 58.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 48.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…c2a5backed No | 80c | 42.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 70c | 38.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 31c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…eceabacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.