Tennis · resolved market
Troyes: Mickael Kaouk vs Marvin Moeller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075c43044deeb56318fb114bd2f3328dd891e9b6fd43ccc4770b73a9e0e02ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marvin Moellerof Mickael Kaouk, Marvin Moeller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mickael Kaouk | 1c | 3,011$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Mickael Kaouk | 1c | 2,334$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Marvin Moeller | 74c | 1,104$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.04 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mickael Kaouk | 26c | 1,096$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.81 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mickael Kaouk | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mickael Kaouk | 16c | 525.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…3064backed Marvin Moeller | 80c | 500.37$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mickael Kaouk | 10c | 325.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marvin Moeller | 78c | 320.61$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…45f6backed Mickael Kaouk | 16c | 296.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 225 | 44.4%100 W · 125 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mickael Kaouk | 26c | 255.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Marvin Moeller | 73c | 227.97$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mickael Kaouk | 27c | 198.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Marvin Moeller | 74c | 184.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Mickael Kaouk | 30c | 176.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Marvin Moeller | 70c | 144$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Mickael Kaouk | 27c | 142.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mickael Kaouk | 14c | 79.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Mickael Kaouk | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Marvin Moeller | 79c | 62.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Marvin Moeller | 73c | 49.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Mickael Kaouk | 26c | 47.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Marvin Moeller | 74c | 45.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…96e2backed Marvin Moeller | 70c | 40.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mickael Kaouk | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Marvin Moeller | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Marvin Moeller | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Marvin Moeller | 73c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Marvin Moeller | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Marvin Moeller | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Marvin Moeller | 71c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…8d79backed Marvin Moeller | 77c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Marvin Moeller | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Marvin Moeller | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.