Asian League · resolved market
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0768bb16f05f75e521518c7b0b13d0f8d1d29dd43d8fe9a0b2be1c449cd4984b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 19c | 6,846$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.85 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 1,621$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.99 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 68c | 882.54$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.54 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed No | 11c | 397.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 73c | 383.11$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 368.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 360.13$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.13 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 25c | 344$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 61c | 300$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 71c | 187.93$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 69c | 182.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 256 | 53.5%137 W · 119 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…bc0cbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 76c | 169.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…44ebbacked No | 15c | 96.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 37c | 96.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 72c | 95.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed No | 19c | 94.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 41c | 90.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 72c | 89.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 43c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 43c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 72.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 64.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 60.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 76c | 43.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 305 | 48.5%148 W · 157 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 75c | 34.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked No | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…4653backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.