NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076b6b55d2b88020280e2142506030ea774840375c6a95af61f0c1de177fd0ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 9,429$4,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,695.52 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,240$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,185.51 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 52c | 4,488$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.93 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 51c | 2,233$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.02 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 50c | 1,485$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.64 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 1,411$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 999.99$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 40c | 631$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.23 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 631$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.24 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 49c | 427.65$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 49c | 326$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 49c | 97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 49c | 97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3346…6bc3backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…e723backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Blues: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. BluesBlues won
- Senators vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.