Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07772d3ef7ed1d99e83b2b0b80c0215a383cc25eb1a32f3f21628da5cd00a8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LYONof LYON, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Shopify Rebellion | 40c | 3,892$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.79 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON | 62c | 3,831$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.15 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked LYON | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…5ac9backed LYON | 75c | 2,467$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 1,603$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.61 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Shopify Rebellion | 43c | 599.96$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 962 | 50.1%482 W · 480 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 532.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed LYON | 75c | 525.82$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 349 | 60.7%212 W · 137 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…0782backed LYON | 60c | 488$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 1,322 | 53.2%703 W · 619 L | +36.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 388.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Shopify Rebellion | 38c | 376.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 363.56$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 322 | 53.1%171 W · 151 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked LYON | 58c | 305.83$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed LYON | 60c | 282.31$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked LYON | 57c | 260.89$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed LYON | 49c | 199.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…b256backed Shopify Rebellion | 42c | 183.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4304…3dd9backed LYON | 58c | 174.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 156.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked LYON | 60c | 140.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Shopify Rebellion | 51c | 118.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 390 | 55.4%216 W · 174 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 41c | 90.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Shopify Rebellion | 44c | 88.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +16.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Shopify Rebellion | 39c | 78.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked LYON | 61c | 76.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Shopify Rebellion | 39c | 72.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 72.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Shopify Rebellion | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 65.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Shopify Rebellion | 42c | 55.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -13.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed LYON | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 798 | 64.3%513 W · 285 L | +32.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed LYON | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 537 | 53.6%288 W · 249 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked LYON | 61c | 50.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Shopify Rebellion | 36c | 48.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Shopify Rebellion | 37c | 43.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed LYON | 70c | 38.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed LYON | 70c | 37.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…1da3backed LYON | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 30c | 36.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked LYON | 63c | 31.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 120 | 67.5%81 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed LYON | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 428 | 47.9%205 W · 223 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked LYON | 59c | 29.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 182 | 63.7%116 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed LYON | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…929abacked Shopify Rebellion | 43c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 166 | 68.7%114 W · 52 L | +22.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…357bbacked LYON | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked LYON | 62c | 24.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed LYON | 60c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.