Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x079132825ebcbb81c0b241e6eb471b1f087b0ebe0f484a734a1719dd046a3cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 48c | 1,216$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.21 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 742.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 46c | 651.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 33c | 609.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.7 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed Yes | 2c | 461.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 420.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 34c | 253.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 156.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 64c | 153$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 132$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 32c | 121.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 57c | 120.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 53c | 115.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 113.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 109.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…680abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 96.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 86.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 62c | 85.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 78.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 48c | 60.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 23c | 56.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 21c | 54.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 47c | 53.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 52c | 53.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 52.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 29c | 50.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 34.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 34.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 34.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…745cbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 31.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 57c | 26.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.