Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fe1b8f79a45441fdb5f44da3bdc8ccb8fe11b5c83d88e05e3b630f949d42376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7492…532cbacked No | 3c | 1,535$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 31c | 388.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 62c | 355.05$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 296.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 256$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 35c | 228.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 219.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 28c | 180.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 101.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 23c | 100.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…680abacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 92.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 90.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 52c | 79.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 74.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 75c | 73.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 23c | 71.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 71.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 70.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 69.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 54.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 54.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 52.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 47.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 77c | 41.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 36.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 34.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 76c | 30.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 24.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 76c | 24.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 21.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 13.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.