Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07937dfa10f964aa94140cc18037350df5660360d5446c52e4396a5c3db080cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 74c | 239.57$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 233$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 28c | 196.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 179.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 125.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 121.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 72c | 119.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 117.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 99.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 38c | 96.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 95.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 79.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 72.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 70.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 55.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 31c | 50.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 49.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 43.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 71c | 36.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 36.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 33.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 33.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 33.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 26.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 18.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 71c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…b1f2backed No | 63c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 16.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.