Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e521dce93de1ce12fac497079d9f527581ceb21332e6451af3ccb174854c036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 2,494$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.43 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 868.9$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 718.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.13 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 472.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 20c | 395.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 55c | 338.64$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 277.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 213.85$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 194.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 54c | 187.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 183.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 178.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 160.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 140.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 109.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 72c | 106.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 106.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 37c | 105.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 78c | 103.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 76c | 102.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 100.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…b33cbacked No | 57c | 88.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…6010backed Yes | 70c | 85.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 84.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 72.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 59c | 68.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 17c | 63.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 58.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 23c | 55.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 52.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 78c | 51.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 50.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 23c | 47.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 40c | 47.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 44.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 37c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 33c | 36.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 62c | 34.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 59c | 34.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 74c | 30.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…1486backed No | 67c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 58c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 75c | 23.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…81babacked Yes | 73c | 21.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 291 | 67.7%197 W · 94 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed Yes | 72c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…b1f2backed No | 80c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.