Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a47b2480fa064f12a331af69c7ba28cf058fb2fd5231c3c7fdfaa8003a2f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 80c | 616.53$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 434.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 78c | 267.57$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 237.84$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 205.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 188.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 52c | 148.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 56c | 130.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 47c | 124.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 32c | 120.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 120.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 119.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…ee1abacked Yes | 50c | 107.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 25c | 102.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 54c | 95.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 53c | 91.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 88.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…c10fbacked Yes | 41c | 81.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 78.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 77.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 59c | 69.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 66.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 64.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 34c | 61.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 60.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 58.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 54c | 57.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 57.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 42c | 55.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 50c | 50.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 50.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 49.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 52c | 49.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…30abbacked No | 61c | 47.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 51c | 46.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 42c | 45.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 47c | 44.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 53c | 39.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…7972backed Yes | 46c | 36.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…2381backed Yes | 61c | 36.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 35c | 34.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 70c | 32.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…7a80backed Yes | 67c | 29.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 28.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 27.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 61c | 27.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 27.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 45c | 27.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 57c | 24.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 47c | 23.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 43c | 23.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 53c | 23.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 62c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 58c | 21.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 55c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 51c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Yes | 58c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.