Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07bb1af195881a99c0e04d31109a0d118f2ae20d0562fc8d7c0481bb5b3bbecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melbourne City FCof Auckland FC, Melbourne City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94d4…d869backed Auckland FC | 25c | 2,918$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Melbourne City FC | 75c | 661.63$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Auckland FC | 18c | 494.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Melbourne City FC | 75c | 447.51$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Melbourne City FC | 73c | 388.7$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked Auckland FC | 23c | 255.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Melbourne City FC | 77c | 251.06$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Auckland FC | 19c | 198.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Auckland FC | 18c | 132.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Auckland FC | 18c | 103.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Auckland FC | 18c | 92.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Melbourne City FC | 72c | 90.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Auckland FC | 18c | 81.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Auckland FC | 18c | 76.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Melbourne City FC | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…4248backed Auckland FC | 32c | 71.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Auckland FC | 14c | 70.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Auckland FC | 18c | 64.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Auckland FC | 19c | 62.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Melbourne City FC | 68c | 61.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3d…f1eabacked Auckland FC | 19c | 56.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Melbourne City FC | 78c | 53.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Melbourne City FC | 75c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Melbourne City FC | 78c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Melbourne City FC | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)this page
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.