Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d544d39ba43d8ec51de49a532af9df86277ced62ef2622f0ec0605e303643f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof Pipsqueak+4, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,168 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc67…5286backed AVULUS | 57c | 2,018$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.69 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 1,689$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.95 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed AVULUS | 61c | 1,364$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.2 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AVULUS | 53c | 771.39$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.83 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 685.64$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.93 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 569.92$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 374.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 362$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked AVULUS | 49c | 308.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 288$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 56c | 196.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 60c | 170.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed AVULUS | 61c | 102.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 96.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 85.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked AVULUS | 49c | 71.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed AVULUS | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 62.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed AVULUS | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed AVULUS | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed AVULUS | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 31.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…f174backed AVULUS | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked AVULUS | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed AVULUS | 56c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked AVULUS | 49c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.