Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1eab2613af1097bf2665556f85aae4d778a169c28e0f1b1e7f624f8b29fcf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof Pipsqueak+4, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,666 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 6,824$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.78 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 72c | 3,280$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.76 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed AVULUS | 73c | 1,983$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.46 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…352ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 5c | 1,843$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked AVULUS | 78c | 1,622$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.32 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 66c | 1,515$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 16c | 1,405$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.02 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed AVULUS | 71c | 766.11$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.03 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 27c | 737.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 702.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked AVULUS | 76c | 659.35$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…ff12backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 563.9$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed AVULUS | 64c | 386.58$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AVULUS | 50c | 372.65$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 353.6$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked AVULUS | 42c | 312.81$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.43 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked AVULUS | 42c | 304$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 256.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 243.59$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Pipsqueak+4 | 16c | 243.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 235$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 234.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed AVULUS | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed AVULUS | 61c | 165.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked AVULUS | 66c | 152.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed AVULUS | 69c | 144.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 142.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed AVULUS | 61c | 129.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 123.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 123.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed AVULUS | 76c | 122.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 104.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked AVULUS | 75c | 101.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed AVULUS | 74c | 80.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 75.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked AVULUS | 42c | 70.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…f174backed AVULUS | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed AVULUS | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 43.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 42.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 36.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed AVULUS | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed AVULUS | 66c | 25.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked AVULUS | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…5ea8backed AVULUS | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked AVULUS | 51c | 22.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked AVULUS | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed AVULUS | 72c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…0216backed AVULUS | 79c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked AVULUS | 79c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked AVULUS | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…3841backed AVULUS | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.