Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07de4a7144730c9ffb5bf1598edecaeb818322f8770329c0a76b7d4c98f4b854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…2225backed No | 10c | 4,022$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed No | 2c | 3,907$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,521$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271c…af71backed No | 5c | 2,245$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 10c | 1,237$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 9c | 1,230$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4c…853ebacked No | 2c | 998.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 8c | 921.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…7124backed No | 66c | 528.12$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 80c | 462$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…6485backed No | 15c | 343.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 341.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…6ea3backed No | 5c | 305.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2f08backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…ddcabacked No | 16c | 273.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 78c | 245$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed No | 6c | 229.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 80c | 223.3$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…6138backed Yes | 23c | 221.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +337.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 135.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…fe0bbacked No | 25c | 122.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 22c | 121.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 105.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 4?this page
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 31?Yes won
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill by July 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.