Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08147c21a39169df6cc80a87312aa3ca37c45352089af661c1db6c78a62f96c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 6c | 17,627$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.03 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,179$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.91 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked No | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…1de9backed No | 1c | 1,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…a467backed No | 2c | 970.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 48c | 901.66$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.33 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 2c | 813.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 721.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 4c | 674.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.73 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 58c | 587.91$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 5c | 516.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.09 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 51c | 371.77$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.38 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 43c | 360.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 329.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.38 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 71c | 302.3$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 284.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 264.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 226.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…6b9cbacked No | 34c | 211.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 64c | 182.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 7c | 177.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 78c | 133.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 17c | 122.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 109.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 23c | 97.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…a8afbacked Yes | 75c | 94.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed No | 60c | 93.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…fc76backed No | 42c | 76.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 58c | 74.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 74.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 71.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 70c | 70.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 67.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 58c | 61.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 71c | 57.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…4019backed No | 34c | 55.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…a0debacked Yes | 78c | 54.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…bb48backed No | 54c | 53.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 52c | 35.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 59c | 33.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 76c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…8b8ebacked No | 67c | 29.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 72c | 29.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…1bdcbacked No | 38c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 40c | 26.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…afa6backed No | 47c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 72c | 25.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…d2d9backed Yes | 63c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed Yes | 65c | 22.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked No | 66c | 19.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…20d5backed No | 61c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 69c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…a21dbacked No | 68c | 17.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 69c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.