Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0855588884c2a77a2308ecbf3a1f896d3f62692865438c89f7f11cb5d3637e5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 79c | 282.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 55c | 248.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 234.38$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 203.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 97.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 95.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 58c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 79.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 67c | 74.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 40c | 70.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 41c | 68.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 65.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 57.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 54.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 53.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 49.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 48.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 41.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 59c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 56c | 29.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 46c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 58c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…f596backed Yes | 71c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 58c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 59c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.