Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63e6d7552325816c3229797b1eb8deead38db12e27bbf7635663cea0e010a8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 301$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.38 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 58c | 175.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 26c | 170.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 40c | 130.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 109.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 81.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 65c | 74.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 73.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 30c | 67.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 61.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes | 34c | 59.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 24c | 43.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 27c | 42.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 30.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 27.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 25.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 65c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 21.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 20.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.