Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08764cec3769ef77fe51c90a981dc331428bec2d0b65c41a199d021703b46ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 543.05$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 426.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.15 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 356.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 4c | 285.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 54c | 277.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 22c | 163.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 137$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 134.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 108.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 14c | 105.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 78c | 100.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 97.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 79.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 19c | 77.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 67c | 65.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 73c | 55.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 51.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 26c | 51.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 44.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 38c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 37c | 37.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 52c | 31.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 29.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 75c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 78c | 21.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 70c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ff02backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.