NHL · resolved market
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. SKA St. Petersburg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08b1de36bce3ba129403d3e640cd1f28323b73ea9f79c848fe82f0d0ab76563d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SKA St. Petersburgof Severstal Cherepovets, SKA St. Petersburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 1,218$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.31 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed SKA St. Petersburg | 41c | 1,178$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.72 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked SKA St. Petersburg | 44c | 315.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.16 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 220.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed SKA St. Petersburg | 41c | 178.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked SKA St. Petersburg | 41c | 173$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 55c | 140.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…27b3backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 103.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…6093backed Severstal Cherepovets | 61c | 93.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Severstal Cherepovets | 56c | 89.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 84.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked SKA St. Petersburg | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed SKA St. Petersburg | 44c | 74.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked SKA St. Petersburg | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed SKA St. Petersburg | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed SKA St. Petersburg | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed SKA St. Petersburg | 39c | 36.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Severstal Cherepovets | 72c | 33.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Severstal Cherepovets | 61c | 30.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 27.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Severstal Cherepovets | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Severstal Cherepovets | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.