Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08b35caaf39a1d8f661761e126eb7716e8beaed0b5d12e959becb0d5d91da8d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,843$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…cf4abacked Yes | 7c | 1,486$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,455$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 4c | 955.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 4c | 624.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 4c | 622.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 274.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 218.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 196.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 196.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 153.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 142.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 15c | 132.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 25c | 130.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 118.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 118.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 115.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 107.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked No | 71c | 102.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 27c | 98.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 86.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 78.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 28c | 73.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 70.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 17c | 65.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 70c | 64.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 55.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 49.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 25c | 48.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 30c | 46.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…ba4dbacked Yes | 30c | 43.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 36c | 39.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 33.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 31.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 29.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 70c | 27.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 26.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 72c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 68c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…5ee6backed No | 79c | 19.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.