Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4a891dcb6ad65e31c5ccae40a638ef6ba28c14e47b16f16a0b5f0e422a5a40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 589.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…0e23backed No | 8c | 489.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 432.56$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 269.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.83 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 244.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 26c | 158.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 24c | 130.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 123.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 118.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 117$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 116.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 107.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 50c | 98.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 39c | 98.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 27c | 96.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 60c | 96.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 91.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 73c | 91.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 58c | 84.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 26c | 82.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 37c | 78.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 78.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 77.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 25c | 72.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 30c | 67.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 23c | 67.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 70c | 62.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 19c | 59.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 58.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 52.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 27c | 48.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…9639backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 42.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 38.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…9a91backed Yes | 49c | 31.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…31bdbacked No | 74c | 30.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 28.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 67c | 28.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…3d40backed No | 74c | 25.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 16.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.