Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c22421bc9da28fffe716bdca4e1c9432724cd90324a63031864a6c2396eef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 6c | 1,319$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 8c | 1,061$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 290.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 193.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 162.35$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 78c | 131.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 18c | 115.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 24c | 107.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 105.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 105.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 19c | 90.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 88.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 86.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 83.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 12c | 83.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 77c | 81.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 14c | 80.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…16e4backed No | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 17c | 65.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 61.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 57.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b434backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 33.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 78c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 80c | 22.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb6…41cabacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 77c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…79acbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.