Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf39567ffd8bad0be54576ceb8ed5b78525af82f048a6a939bb9373e10dacbc67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 291.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 252.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 19c | 218.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 21c | 165.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 65c | 153.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 72c | 150.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 51c | 142.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 142.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 10c | 136.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 115.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 72c | 110.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 55c | 108.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 19c | 106.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 48c | 103.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 100.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 58c | 97.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 51c | 84.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 82.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 68.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 59c | 67.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 28c | 61.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 56.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 56.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 25c | 56.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 54.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 20c | 51.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 50c | 51.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 46c | 50.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 44c | 49.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 57c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 27c | 43.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 45c | 40.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 69c | 40.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd373…83d0backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 63c | 38.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 71c | 36.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 69c | 36.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 72c | 34.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 55c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 47c | 32.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 60c | 31.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 80c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 55c | 27.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 70c | 25.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 69c | 25.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 60c | 18.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 74c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.