Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c4067a072e46145d264244450f80c126a8d8509807aab527caff19123236bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 640.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 597.45$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 302.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 30c | 283.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 271.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 229.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 10c | 182.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 178.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 162.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 115.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 18c | 109.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 106.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 105.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 36c | 105.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 77c | 89.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 13c | 81.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 15c | 78.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 78.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 34c | 72.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 28c | 71.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 16c | 70.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 65.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 64.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 20c | 62.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 30c | 62.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 53.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 30c | 51.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 36c | 50.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 48.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 45c | 46.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 69c | 44.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 43.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 41.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 28c | 41.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked No | 76c | 36.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 27.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 59c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.