Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db14e498492ae3cf5fffbd7d525f04bd4cb194335a707fb4ed05ce5fdb824a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 602.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 72c | 325.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 262.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 261.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 236.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 182.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 74c | 165.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 163.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 156.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 22c | 148.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 16c | 117.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 94.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 92.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 88.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 60c | 80.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 73.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 72.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 58c | 67.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 63.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 59.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 57.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 23c | 56.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 54.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 44.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 42.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 41.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 40.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 40.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 33.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 32.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 31.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 29.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 21.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 76c | 19.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 53c | 19.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 72c | 15.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.