Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23bf984e91581f06c01862e0c9359f69c6aedbf97b32566e5120456253b1bb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 34c | 1,491$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.62 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 516.38$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 342.81$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 37c | 251$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 244.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 230.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 212.18$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 208.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 187.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 178$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 168.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 36c | 158.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 156$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 98.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 36c | 92.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 90.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 77.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 54c | 72.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 70.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 69.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 67.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 67c | 67.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 74c | 67.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 65.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 63.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 68c | 57.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 54.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 53.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 51.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 45c | 51.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 65c | 50.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 30c | 49.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 48.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 48.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 45.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 44.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 28c | 43.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 73c | 40.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 40.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…dad0backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 31.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 69c | 27.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 75c | 26.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 23.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 44c | 23.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 20.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…0f9fbacked No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 18.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 77c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 69c | 14.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.